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  • shit google says.


    DefCon
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    So i was TRYING to research probability today and so I go and Google some blackjack odds.

     

    This was the top result on their engine:

     

    The probability that the second card is a 10 point card is 16/51. So the probability of an ace first blackjack is (4/52)*(16/51). Multiply this by 2 because the ten could just as easily be the first card and the answer is 2*(4/52)*(16/51) = 128/2652 = 0.0482655, or about 1 in 20.7 .

    The first two sentences make perfect sense. There are 51 cards, your odd are aces in the deck divided by the total number of cards in the deck. Well, the last sentence is where shit goes completely off the rails... I was always taught in school that the probability of pulling a set of cards never changes., regardless of the order. 

     

    Now, on the other hand if you were to pull a card and then ask what your odds are, it would change at that point.  It's just like the monte hall problem. 

     

    I'm so frustrated right now... is it jsut me or do i not understand statistics like at all?

     

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    You either get a 10 and then an ace or get an ace and then a 10 . 16/52* 4/51 + 4/52*16/51

    Ahh okay, yeah the way you explained it makes more sense.

     

    Another way to think of it is that you have 2 chances to draw an ace and then 2 chances to draw a 10. 

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    Ahh okay, yeah the way you explained it makes more sense.

     

    Another way to think of it is that you have 2 chances to draw an ace and then 2 chances to draw a 10. 

    both with a different probability 

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