What determines the first ban you receive? 2-day ban vs immediate perma-ban

[lootistonly 3]

A few weeks ago I started an account, which I put a lot of manual effort into (probably something like 50% playtime and 50% botting). 3 days after starting it and getting 60 atk/str, I woke up that morning to see "Your account has been disabled." I had assumed I would receive a 2-day ban, as that seems to be how Jagex typically deals with bans: first they hand out a 2-day ban, then a perma ban if the account is caught botting again. Instead Jagex slapped me right back to tutorial island with that perma-ban

Ever since then I wondered: what causes an account to receive a permanent ban right away, versus a 2-day ban? Does Jagex check your IP, and if there has been previous bans, they will hand out a perma-ban right away? Or is it something with the age of the account, e.g. if the account caught botting is less than 3 days old, it will get receive a perma-ban right away? Or is it something with the amount of time you spent botting, e.g. <10 hours you receive 2-day ban, >10 hours you receive perma-ban?

I should mention all of my accounts got membership right off tutorial island, non of them were f2p. I put at least 50% manual effort into all my accounts, mostly for getting through the initial set of quests up to Monkey Madness. With the past 5 accounts I started, 1 of them was perma-banned right away, and 3 of them received 2-day bans.

[brave 29]

How did you fund your membership? I have experienced different results with bonds/p2p codes.

[lootistonly 3]

5 hours ago, brave said:

How did you fund your membership? I have experienced different results with bonds/p2p codes.

I use 16-day membership codes for all my accounts, which I buy for around $2 each.